26 Jun · 17:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AJ
🇨🇿Ales Brandtl Jr
ELO 1490
FormLLWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Vodal
PV
🇨🇿Petr Vodal
ELO 1555
FormLWWWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Vodal
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+65
H2H19-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+65)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (19-17)