27 Jun · 20:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1533
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Benes
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1570
FormLLLLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Benes
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+37
H2H0-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.