27 Jun · 22:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1423
FormWLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Vavricka
RV
🇨🇿Richard Vavricka
ELO 1474
FormLLWWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Vavricka
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.78· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
20%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+51
H2H5-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.