28 Jun · 18:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JD
🇨🇿Jaroslav Dohnal
ELO 1498
FormLWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Dohnal
JS
🇨🇿Jachym Sebl
ELO 1467
FormLLLLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Dohnal
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+31
H2H42-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.