28 Jun · 18:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1406
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Tlusty
MT
🇨🇿Milan Tlusty
ELO 1447
FormWLWWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Tlusty
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~82 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+41
H2H47-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.