28 Jun · 21:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PV
🇨🇿Petr Vanek
ELO 1805
FormLLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Vanek
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1749
FormWWWWL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Vanek
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+56
H2H27-20
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+56)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (27-20)