28 Jun · 23:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1749
FormWWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kadavy
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Kadavy
ELO 1770
FormWWWLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Kadavy
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+21
H2H16-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.