29 Jun · 09:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PV
🇨🇿Petr Vodal
ELO 1553
FormLWWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Hnizdil
TH
🇨🇿Tomas Hnizdil
ELO 1628
FormWLWWL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Hnizdil
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+75
H2H16-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+75)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-4)