29 Jun · 14:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MT
🇨🇿Milan Tlusty
ELO 1466
FormWLWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Varecka
OV
🇨🇿Ondrej Varecka
ELO 1567
FormLWLWW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Varecka
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
3-1
15%
Elo Gap+101
H2H5-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+101)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-1)