29 Jun · 18:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1408
FormLLLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Sochor
MS
🇨🇿Miroslav Sochor
ELO 1463
FormLWWLW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Sochor
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+55
H2H41-35
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+55)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (41-35)