29 Jun · 21:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KZ
🇨🇿Karel Zeman
ELO 1452
FormWLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Zeman
PJ
🇨🇿Patrik Jokiel
ELO 1420
FormLLLLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Zeman
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+32
H2H5-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.