30 Jun · 12:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MN
🇨🇿Michal Nemec
ELO 1432
FormWLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Cibik
PC
🇨🇿Pavel Cibik
ELO 1465
FormLWWWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Cibik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+33
H2H14-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.