30 Jun · 17:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DB
🇨🇿David Bochnak
ELO 1710
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Cerny
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1720
FormLLLLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Cerny
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+10
H2H47-50
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.