30 Jun · 21:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KZ
🇨🇿Karel Zeman
ELO 1453
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Zeman
JV
🇨🇿Jiri Vanous
ELO 1445
FormLWWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Zeman
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+8
H2H13-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.