30 Jun · 17:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1453
FormWWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Tlusty
MT
🇨🇿Milan Tlusty
ELO 1471
FormLWLWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Tlusty
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+18
H2H1-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.