30 Jun · 21:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇨🇿David Sarganek
ELO 1641
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sarganek
RN
🇨🇿Rostislav Niezgoda
ELO 1628
FormWWLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Sarganek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 52% · 1.94· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+13
H2H30-39
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.