1 Jul · 21:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DO
🇨🇿David Osvald
ELO 1579
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Osvald
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1568
FormLLWLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Osvald
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.