1 Jul · 21:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DH
🇨🇿David Hons
ELO 1499
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Ruzicka
JR
🇨🇿Jan Ruzicka
ELO 1507
FormLWLLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Ruzicka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.96· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H14-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.