2 Jul · 16:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JF
🇨🇿Jan Fiala
ELO 1500
FormWWLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Fiala
PM
🇨🇿Petr Moravec
ELO 1498
FormLLWWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Fiala
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+2
H2H1-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.