2 Jul · 18:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PM
🇨🇿Petr Moravec
ELO 1498
FormLLWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Moravec
FM
🇨🇿Filip Marat
ELO 1411
FormLWWWL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+87
H2H4-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+87)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-1)