2 Jul · 18:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1431
FormWWWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Fiala
JF
🇨🇿Jan Fiala
ELO 1500
FormWWLWL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Fiala
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+69
H2H7-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-5)