3 Jul · 09:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MJ
🇨🇿Michal Janik
ELO 1463
FormLLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Janik
LK
🇨🇿Lukas Kantor
ELO 1410
FormLLLLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Janik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 44% · 2.25· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H1-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.