3 Jul · 16:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1730
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Cerny
DV
🇨🇿David Vesecky
ELO 1714
FormWWLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Cerny
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H65-58
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.