3 Jul · 17:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MN
🇨🇿Michal Nemec
ELO 1443
FormWWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Nemec
JB
🇨🇿Jaroslav Brynych
ELO 1431
FormWWLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Nemec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H15-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.