3 Jul · 23:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RM
🇨🇿Radek Muller
ELO 1504
FormLLWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Dohnal
JD
🇨🇿Jaroslav Dohnal
ELO 1505
FormWWLWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Dohnal
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+1
H2H15-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.