4 Jul · 19:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1571
FormWWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Krupnik
IH
🇨🇿Ivan Heuman
ELO 1534
FormWWWWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H9-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.