4 Jul · 22:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FC
🇨🇿Frantisek Chaloupka
ELO 1572
FormWWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Chaloupka
IH
🇨🇿Ivan Heuman
ELO 1534
FormWWWWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Chaloupka
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H10-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.