4 Jul · 15:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AD
🇨🇿Ales Drozd
ELO 1530
FormLWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Matus
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1549
FormWLLWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Matus
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.