5 Jul · 13:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JS
🇨🇿Jachym Sebl
ELO 1469
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sebl
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Knazik
ELO 1459
FormWLLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Sebl
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H90-61
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.