5 Jul · 09:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇨🇿Jakub Rolik
ELO 1460
FormWLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Rolik
JB
🇨🇿Jaroslav Brynych
ELO 1415
FormLWLLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Rolik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H5-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.