5 Jul · 12:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1496
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lasota
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1480
FormLLWLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Lasota
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H4-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.