5 Jul · 23:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FM
🇨🇿Filip Marat
ELO 1436
FormWLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kral
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1455
FormLWWWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Kral
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H19-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.