5 Jul · 21:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
IH
🇨🇿Ivan Heuman
ELO 1520
FormLWLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Skvrna
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1615
FormLWLWW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Skvrna
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+95
H2H10-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+95)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-7)