5 Jul · 22:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MT
🇨🇿Milan Tlusty
ELO 1442
FormLLLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Varecka
OV
🇨🇿Ondrej Varecka
ELO 1545
FormWWWLL
42%
58%
Fair odds · Varecka
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+103
H2H6-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+103)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-1)