5 Jul · 21:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OV
🇨🇿Ondrej Varecka
ELO 1545
FormWWWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Varecka
FM
🇨🇿Filip Marat
ELO 1434
FormWLWLL
59%
41%
Fair odds · Varecka
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+111
H2H8-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+111)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-5)