6 Jul · 09:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stusek
ELO 1625
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stusek
VB
🇨🇿Vit Benak
ELO 1615
FormLLWLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Stusek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H6-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.