6 Jul · 21:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TL
🇨🇿Tomas Lysek
ELO 1567
FormWLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Lysek
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Molin
ELO 1520
FormLWWLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Lysek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H11-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.