6 Jul · 17:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1446
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kral
FB
🇨🇿Frantisek Balcar
ELO 1433
FormLWLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Kral
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H6-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.