6 Jul · 16:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇨🇿Matej Beran
ELO 1487
FormWLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Beran
MS
🇨🇿Miroslav Sochor
ELO 1456
FormLLWWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Beran
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H2-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.