6 Jul · 20:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TL
🇨🇿Tomas Lysek
ELO 1567
FormWLWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Lysek
DB
🇨🇿Daniel Branny
ELO 1481
FormLLLLW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Lysek
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+86
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+86)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)