6 Jul · 20:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇨🇿David Skulina
ELO 1529
FormLWLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Macurak
MM
🇨🇿Michal Macurak
ELO 1535
FormLLWLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Macurak
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.