7 Jul · 11:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇨🇿Mateusz Burkacki
ELO 1542
FormWWLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Drozdz
DD
🇨🇿Dariusz Drozdz
ELO 1627
FormWWWLW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Drozdz
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 59% · 1.69· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+85
H2H6-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+85)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-4)