7 Jul · 16:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PM
🇨🇿Petr Moravec
ELO 1463
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Fiala
JF
🇨🇿Jan Fiala
ELO 1495
FormLLWWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Fiala
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H2-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.