7 Jul · 23:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RM
🇨🇿Radek Muller
ELO 1512
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Muller
JH
🇨🇿Jan Hendrych
ELO 1500
FormLWLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Muller
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H9-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.