7 Jul · 18:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1461
FormWLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Moravec
PM
🇨🇿Petr Moravec
ELO 1463
FormLLLLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+2
H2H14-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.