7 Jul · 21:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IH
🇨🇿Ivan Heuman
ELO 1539
FormWWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Heuman
AC
🇨🇿Ales Cizek
ELO 1528
FormLWWWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Heuman
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H7-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.