7 Jul · 18:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JF
🇨🇿Jan Fiala
ELO 1495
FormLLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Fiala
MS
🇨🇿Miroslav Sochor
ELO 1457
FormWLWLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Fiala
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H6-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.