7 Jul · 21:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
FB
🇨🇿Frantisek Balcar
ELO 1425
FormLWWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Muller
RM
🇨🇿Radek Muller
ELO 1512
FormWLWWL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Muller
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+87
H2H4-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+87)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-3)