8 Jul · 10:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AJ
🇨🇿Ales Brandtl Jr
ELO 1502
FormLWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Jr
JS
🇨🇿Jachym Sebl
ELO 1472
FormLWLWL
52%
48%
🌟Sebl stays under total as underdog 78% (18)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H10-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.