8 Jul · 14:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1496
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vonasek
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1511
FormLLWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Vonasek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H5-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.